WASHINGTON, D.C. — Fresh economic data and updated forecasts are reinforcing the narrative of U.S. economic resilience, defying earlier recession warnings and highlighting the durability of the nation’s labor market entering 2026.

New figures from the Labor Department show employers added 130,000 jobs in January—well above economists’ expectations and marking one of the strongest hiring performances in recent months. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3 percent, underscoring what analysts describe as a labor market that remains fundamentally stable despite elevated interest rates and global uncertainty.

Economists say the report reflects an economy that continues to generate employment even as growth moderates from the rapid post-pandemic expansion. Hiring gains were led by health care, construction, and service industries, sectors that have remained structurally short of workers.

The stronger-than-anticipated job growth has also reshaped financial-market expectations. Investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts, citing sustained labor-market strength and still-elevated inflation pressures.

Broader macroeconomic indicators echo the theme of resilience. Treasury assessments note that labor conditions have “generally remained stable,” with workforce participation improving even as hiring growth moderates. Meanwhile, private forecasts project U.S. GDP growth hovering near 2 percent in 2026—modest but steady expansion consistent with a soft-landing scenario.

Policy analysts point to structural drivers supporting continued momentum, including infrastructure investment, domestic manufacturing incentives, and rapid capital spending tied to artificial-intelligence development. These forces, combined with resilient consumer spending, have helped cushion the economy from global slowdowns and geopolitical volatility.

Still, economists caution that strength is not uniform. Hiring has cooled compared with 2024 peaks, and some sectors—particularly manufacturing and trade-exposed industries—face headwinds from tariffs and shifting global demand.

For now, however, recession fears that dominated earlier forecasts have receded. The combination of steady job creation, moderate growth, and controlled—though persistent—inflation suggests the U.S. economy is navigating a narrow but stable path forward.

Whether this resilience evolves into a sustained expansion or slows under prolonged high interest rates will depend on inflation trends, consumer demand, and Federal Reserve policy in the months ahead.